Evaluating Michael Crabtree's Fantasy Value in 2013

While everyone was busy getting caught up in the hype surrounding Colin Kaepernick, it was easy to overlook San Francisco's biggest beneficiary: Michael Crabtree. In 2012, Crabtree set career marks in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Normally 1,100 yards and 9 TDs wouldn't blow you away. But when you take into account his production with Colin Kaepernick, it's easy to see why Crabtree could be in for a huge fantasy year.

Take a look at this blind comparison:
Player A - 39 receptions (55 targets), 440 yards, 11.3 ypc, 3 TDs
Player B - 46 receptions (72 targets), 665 yards, 14.5 ypc, 6 TDs

Both players are Michael Crabtree. Threw in a little curve ball this time. Player A is Michael Crabtree in the first 8 games of the season with Alex Smith under center. Player B is Michael Crabtree in the last 8 games of the season with Colin Kaepernick under center. Throw in the playoffs (20 receptions (28 targets), 285 yards, 14.4 ypc, 3 TDs), and the benefit Kaepernick provides Crabtree becomes even more obvious. Against the league's best competition, Colin and Michael shined even brighter.

You have to remember Colin was only 11 games into his pro career at season's end. He matured more and more each game. As did Colin and Michael's chemistry.

Extrapolate those 11 games together over a 16 game season and Crabtree finishes with these numbers:

96 receptions (145 targets), 1,382 yards, 14.4 ypc, 13 TDs (216.2 fantasy points)

Calvin Johnson, in a year in which he set the single-season record for receiving yards, had 220.4 fantasy points. Brandon Marshall followed with 216.6. Dez Bryant was next with 207.7. That means, if Crabtree and Kaepernick continued on the same pace for a full season, Michael would have been the third highest scorer among all fantasy wide receivers in 2012. That's not even considering the fact his stats were rising with each game, as his rookie quarterback gained experience. Who knows? Crabtree might have even outperformed Calvin. Maybe not in total yardage, but in fantasy points, he would have had a legitimate shot.

I'm not saying Michael Crabtree should be the #1 wide receiver off the board next year, but I am saying his 2013 stats could potentially make him worthy of the honor. He's a WR2 at worst. I'd even argue, he's a definitive WR1.

Don't forget how good this guy was in college:




Image courtesy of Google Images

Top 10 Fantasy WRs for 2013

10. Percy Harvin
The fact that one of Christian Ponder's receivers made the top 10 might amaze you. As it should. Despite Ponder's ineptitude (sorry Samantha Steele), Percy has been a certified fantasy stud the last few years. Headache's and injuries have prevented him from reaching his true potential, but I really believe with a healthy season, this guy becomes a WR1. Even better, you can still probably draft him as a WR2. Catching the ball, throwing the ball, returning the ball, Harvin is a threat to score with any touch. With rumors Percy might be shopped elsewhere, I'm even more excited about the prospect of this guy. If he shredded defenses with Christian Ponder, imagine what he can do with a guy like Tom Brady? Let's not forget Harvin was considered an MVP candidate by some before his injury opened the door for AP to run away with it. If Harvin's available in the third round, you best be selecting him.

9. Roddy White
Everybody seems to want to pass the Falcons #1 receiver baton from Roddy to Julio, but the old man just won't give it up. He's still the more reliable target for Matt Ryan. He doesn't have Julio's flair for the spectacular, but you can't argue with consistency when it comes to fantasy stats. I personally believe the playoffs were a sign of what's to come for Julio; a changing of the guard if you will. Roddy won't be far behind him though. Julio's the big play man, but when Ryan needs a third down conversion or Julio draws additional defenders, Roddy will undoubtedly be his go-to man.

8. Julio Jones
When I said Roddy wasn't far behind Julio, I wasn't kidding. I literally meant he would be right behind him on this list. As mentioned above, Julio's the big play guy with a flair for the spectacular. He will make your jaws drop on some touchdown catches. Yes, his occasional inconsistency and the fact that he will share the load with Roddy drops him down a few notches on the list, but he's worth building a fantasy receiving core around.

7. Eric Decker
Peyton Manning has done it again. Say what you want about the guy's playoff history, but there are no kinks in his fantasy armor. I didn't think it was possible to quarterback two wide receivers into the top seven, but somehow Peyton proved me wrong. The only thing more impressive than Decker's fantasy play on the field last year was Decker's fantasy play at home (I'm only speculating, but come on look at his fiance):

If that doesn't motivate you to continue to be great on a football field, I don't know what does. Eric Decker's going to do just fine next season. He's certainly not going to lose any confidence.

6. Vincent Jackson
Many people had reservations about drafting Jackson after he ditched Phillip Rivers for a bigger contract and the slumping sophomore Josh Freeman. Only the deal made Jackson even better. Turns out Josh Freeman's cannon of an arm is more effective at finding the deep threat Jackson than Rivers' unorthodox shot-put style that seems to find defenders hands more than teammates. Who would have thought? Apparently me, since I stayed away from Jackson last year. Now Jackson finds himself on an on-the-rise young team with a great young quarterback about to enter his fourth season. A season that almost always bring substantial QB improvement (I say almost because Mark Sanchez rewrote the book this year). I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson finishes higher than this. Not much will separate him from the top 5.

5. A.J. Green
Fun fact: The following players outscored A.J. Green over the last four games of the 2012 season: Lance Moore, Justin Blackmon, Greg Little, Kenny Britt and Rod Streater. (Collectively: Who?!?) You heard me, Rod Streater. At a time when you needed production most, A.J. Green abandoned you. As great a receiver as A.J. is, those are just the facts. Nobody came on stronger than Green to start the season. But as the season went on and Dalton struggled against strong AFC North defenses, so did Green. A wide receiver is only as good as his quarterback. Ask Larry Fitzgerald (cut to Larry nodding somberly). The next four guys have quarterbacks that will put them in a position to excel. I'm not so sure A.J. Green truly has that yet. He may be the league's best juggler. But he won't be the league's best fantasy receiver in 2013.

4. Demaryius Thomas
When the Broncos signed Peyton Manning this year, I put Demaryius Thomas on my "must draft" list. By the time my draft came around, the ESPN talking heads had convinced me not too. All their talk about Eric Decker's route-running and Peyton diluting Thomas' stats cause he'd be sharing the wealth. Thanks a lot guys. I took Desean Jackson over this guy. I could've had 1,400 yards and 10 TDs at my number three wide out position. This year. I refuse to make the same mistake. I will draft Demaryius Thomas early and often. He's as physically gifted as any wide receiver on this list (with the exception of Calvin whose unparalleled). With Decker on the other side and Peyton under center, Demaryius will be scary good for at least a few years.

3. Dez Bryant
The only thing as certain as death and taxes in weeks 10-16 were Dez Bryant touchdown catches. Dallas' "X-factor" finally arrived in 2012, with a receiving display only out-shadowed by number 1 on this list. It appears Tony Romo and Dez Bryant are finally clicking on all cylinders. As a Giants fan, this frightens me. Nursing a broken finger doctors pleaded him not to play with in Week 16, Dez went out and grabbed 9 balls for 244 yards and 2 TDs. Anyone that had Dez on their team in the championship, won that championship (myself included). For the last few years Dez has been a party boy. Last year, Dez became a man amongst boys on the field. If he keeps his act together, he'll give these next two guys a run for their money.

2. Brandon Marshall
Marshall was targeted 194 times last season. Second to only Calvin Johnson. When you give a great receiver that many chances to make a play, you're going to see big results. And that's exactly what fantasy owners saw from him - 118 catches, 1,508 yards and 11 TDs. I tried to draft Marshall on all of my fantasy teams last year. It paid huge dividends. He was the most consistent receiver all year, never totaling less than 8 fantasy points after Week 3. If the Bears can use the off-season to revamp their offensive line a little bit, Marshall might be even better next year.

1. Calvin Johnson
Really not much to talk about here. This man alternate life form had 1,964 yards receiving...in a down season!! Barring injury, Calvin Johnson will go down as the best receiver in NFL history. Mark. My. Words.

Images courtesy of Google Images

Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2013

10. Robert Griffin III
Even after the knee injury RGIII needs to be a QB1 in all 10-team format leagues. As great of a runner as he is, I was more impressed by his ability to throw from the pocket this year. The guy was launching 60 yard bombs into windows smaller than a bread basket. Major knee surgery or not defenses will have to respect his ability to run, which means his receivers will be open up the field. The reason I drop him down to #10 is because of the threat of injury. Two torn ACLs in four years. He hasn't proven he can sustain the hits or completely avoid them in the open field. He's one bad cut or Bernard Pollard tackle away from ruining your fantasy season.

9. Matthew Stafford
I'm starting to think Matthew Stafford might be a fraud. What if Calvin Johnson is so unbelievably good that Matthew Stafford is actually another #1 bust? Only Calvin has turned him into a respectable quarterback with his inhuman abilities. I'm starting to think that's in the realm of possibilities. Let's face it. The Lions only had one answer through the air. Titus Young was flat out laughable. Brandon Pettigrew wasn't impressing anyone either. I don't care how many different arm angles Matthew Stafford can throw the ball from. His stats rise and fall with Calvin Johnson touchdown catches. And his dependence on Megatron might be doing him more harm than good. He seems to think he can force any ball to the guy. Seventeen interceptions and a losing season later, I hope he's learned his lesson. Until Matthew Stafford shows me he can make the pieces around Calvin better, I'm not trusting this guy as my fantasy quarterback. Broyles and Pettigrew are there. Use them Matthew.

8. Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan was my must draft QB this past season in fantasy. I wanted value in the fifth round or later for my quarterback. Matty Ice was the obvious choice. Ryan made huge strides as a quarterback this year. He made a case for the ever-popular, overly-argued "elite" status after a year of bolstered stats, big throws and impressive come-from-behind victories. Had it not been for a forgettable second half against the Niners in the NFC championship game, Matt Ryan might be a Super Bowl champion with an even higher ceiling awaiting him. With the loss though, we're only left to assume Matt hasn't quite figured it out yet. Now it's up to Matt to decide if these continued woes are going to make him more discouraged or desired. In my opinion, the desire will still be there, but the stats will dip. Ryan is losing his most prized offensive possession. His rock. Tony Gonzalez. Tony's impact can't be understated. He was an absolute monster. Harder to cover now than he was ten years ago. In the red zone, on third down, Ryan relied on Gonzalez over and over again. Julio and Roddy will still be there, but a lot of what they accomplished was as a result of the necessary attention Gonzalez received from opposing defenses. Without TG, Ryan's numbers will regress.

7. Colin Kaepernick
I am most curious to see where Colin Kaepernick winds up getting drafted this year. My guess is he'll be overvalued. It's easy to remember the gaudy stats he put up in the playoffs last year, but it's funny how quickly we forget the unimpressive games just weeks before (St. Louis, Seattle, etc.). If you recall, Alex Smith had a performance for the ages in the playoffs against the Saints just a year before. You didn't quite see that resonate with his 2012 fantasy stats. I know, I know, this is different. Kaepernick is the offensive spark plug, getting better with each game. The kid was born to run the pistol offense. He ran the pilot at the University of Nevada and NFL defensive coordinators are throwing fits trying to stop it. But the NFL also hasn't had seven months to figure out a way to stop that offense. They do now. 2013 will be the biggest test for the spread-option. Kaepernick, Wilson and Griffin have challenged the league to find a way to stop it. Come September, we'll see if the league can. I have a strange feeling it can't. It's a numbers game. The quarterback doesn't decide who gets the ball until the defense is undermanned. And the need to respect the run creates huge passing lanes down field. Kaep, RG3 and Russell can throw too. They're hybrids; an offensive nightmare. Ultimately, I think the only thing that can't stop the spread-option right now is injury (as we unfortunately saw with RG3). As such, for now, I think the spread-option is here to stay. This will contribute to huge fantasy weeks for Kaepernick. However the one down side to Kaepernick's value is that defenses have a choice when defending the spread-option. They can shut the running back out of the mix or the quarterback. So even though Kaep will have some monster fantasy weeks, I expect him to lay idle as a spectator in others, while Frank Gore reaps the rewards. In fantasy, inconsistency can be quite detrimental. You'll love Colin some weeks and hate him others. Expect to see him finish the year closer to #10 than #1. I do believe he'll be worth the start though. His fantasy ceiling is through the roof. Is the risk worth it?

6. Russell Wilson
It should probably be noted this ranking should be taken with a side of bias. I am developing an unhealthy man crush on this guy (he's even in the banner of my website). It all started with his 40-point fantasy performance in Week 15 against the Bills. That spot start single-handedly sent my team to the championship. Safe to say Wilson swept me off my feet on our first date. I'm just more and more impressed with the guy each week. He's never flustered, always seems to make the right decision and doesn't fear the big moment. It's funny too, because I was so low on Russell Wilson after the draft. I wasn't sure he could throw a spiral. But Wilson quickly showed us what he showed the Seahawks in training camp. He's a winner and a leader. Carroll played it cool with him through 10 or 12 games, relying on defense and the run game to carry the Seahawks. Then he unleashed Wilson. That's when the Seahawks became bonafide contenders. He'll be unleashed starting Week 1 next year. His fantasy stats will reflect that too. He was the #8 ranked QB in points in a season he was conservatively used 75% of the time. Next year, I think it's skies the limit. Go Hawks!

5. Peyton Manning
I fully expect Peyton Manning to do two things this year: 1) Give away 3 million free Papa John's pizzas. And 2) Finish 2013 as the 5th ranked fantasy QB. Peyton was pretty low on my draft board last season. His preseason throws were wobbling more than weebles. But he quickly put my criticisms to bed in Week 1, only getting better with each game. 4,600 yards and 37 TDs later, it's safe to say I was wrong about him. He's only going to get better folks. If fantasy carried over into the playoffs, I'd tell you to shy away from Peyton. But lucky for him, it doesn't. Which makes him a fantasy stud.

4. Tom Brady
Last season I had Tom Brady at #2, this season he's slipping to #4. It's not that I don't think Tom will be as effective this year. The guy is going to be a stud for your team. You really can't go wrong with any quarterback in the top 5. But it seems the Patriots have made a conscious effort to commit to the run. We're seeing a lot more hand-offs near the goal-line than we have in the past. I also can't definitively say Wes Welker is coming back next year. Edelman may be a phenomenal replacement, but he's still a poor man's Wes if you ask me. As such, I'm slipping Brady down a few spots for 2013. $57 million guaranteed, a super model wife and a house with a friggin moat? I think he'll get over it.

3. Aaron Rodgers
Any analyst will argue Aaron Rodgers is the best fantasy QB in the game - hands down. I choose to go against the grain here. Two years in a row we've seen Drew Brees outscore Rodgers and get outranked by him. Call me crazy, but doesn't the team with the most fantasy points win the match-up? Somebody should probably discount double check that (Yes, I went there. I'm sorry). Rodgers may have the best skill set in the game, but with a shaky offensive line, no run game and a seemingly always unhealthy supporting cast around him, the guy can only do so much. I say this year "so much" is a top 3 finish in points. No more.

2. Cam Newton
As a rookie, Cam started fast and finished slow. As a sophomore, Cam started slow and finished fast. Just when we thought even the great Cam Newton couldn't avoid a sophomore slump, he came out and torched fantasy opponents down the stretch. For some teams, it was too little too late, but for a lot of teams, it turned their seasons around en route to a championship. This year, I expect Cam Newton to put it all together. Start strong and finish strong. Considering he's finished his first two seasons as a top five fantasy quarterback with limited production for half a season in each, I think it's safe to say some sound Newton play for 16 weeks makes him the #2 if not the #1 QB in fantasy. If you're looking QB first, I'd make a play for this guy.



1. Drew Brees
Who's the number 1 fantasy QB in 2013? Ha, this one's a Brees (And you thought it couldn't be worse than the discount double check line). Drew throws for 5,000 yards and 40 TDs in his sleep. A sleep induced by Nyquil to boot. It's kind of alarming. This year he did it without Sean Payton. Reeeunited and it feels so goooood. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Drew Brees throws for 5,000 yards and 40+ TDs. Just a hunch. Will he throw 20 interceptions? Probably. But that minus-40 isn't going to hurt that bad when he's putting up 5,000 yards and 40 TDs to go along with it. The rankings might say Aaron Rodgers is the #1 fantasy QB option, but the point totals point to Brees.

Honorable Mention:
Tony Romo (Uwww so close Tony. Kind of like that extra point scramble in your first playoff choke job.)

Image courtesy of Google Images

Super Bowl Sunday

When I was seven years old I bet my mom $20 the 49ers would beat the Chargers in the Super Bowl. It was my first sports bet and I remember it to this day. I was so excited all week leading up to the game. My mom would poke fun at me saying the Chargers were going to win, while I firmly believed there was no way the 49ers could ever lose to them. It wasn't until the Saturday before the big game when my mom revealed why she was so confident in her pick all week. An exchange to this degree went down:

Mom: "Ya know, the 49ers have to cover the spread for you to win."
Me (a little worried): "The spread? What's a spread?"
Mom (pointing to the line in the morning paper): "The spread means the 49ers have to win by more than 18 1/2 points for you to win the bet".
Me: "What?! Are you kidding me?! No way!"

I still remember my Dad laughing across the table. At this point I was in disbelief. I felt cheated, but I was still confident the 49ers could pull it off. I agreed to the bet and throughout the game put my above average math skills to the test that Sunday, keeping track of the point spread the whole time.

The 49ers won that game by 23 points. I won the bet by 5.5 points. I have to imagine Vegas won that bet too. Vegas basically dared everybody to take the Chargers. And I bet many people did. Didn't fool the naive 7-year-old from New Jersey though. I was sticking to my guns.

I loved that 49ers team. As a Giants fan, I hated the Cowboys (still do). Only the Cowboys owned the Giants. The G-men never stood a chance against them. The 49ers were one of the only teams that could really go toe-to-toe with them. Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Deion Sanders. The Niners were explosive. Fun to watch. When I wasn't watching Dave Brown take sacks and throw interceptions, I was watching Steve Young loft deep balls into the outstretched arms of the sure-handed Jerry Rice.

That was the Niners fifth Super Bowl championship in as many tries. And it was the last time they were ever in the Super Bowl. On paper, the game was a no-brainer. I made my pick with supreme confidence. In the years to come I saw the Cowboys, Packers, Broncos (twice), Rams and Ravens all win Super Bowls. All coming in as the better team on paper. But since then a lot has changed. We saw the Patriots take down the greatest show on turf. The Giants ruin the Patriots perfect season. Tracy Porter intercept Peyton Manning's claim to be maybe the greatest ever. A 9-7 Cardinals team narrowly lose to the heavily-favored Steelers. And a sixth seeded Packers team cruise to a title. The game has become any team's for the taking.

This year, the Niners are the better team on paper. Hands down. They're just complete on both sides of the ball; boasting arguably the best defense in the NFL and now, with the addition of Colin Kaepernick, maybe the most explosive offense in the NFL as well. It doesn't seem like there's any situation the Niners can't handle. They held off a ferocious comeback by the Pats on Monday night in New England. They overcame a 17-point deficit on the road in Atlanta two weeks ago. The Niners have made it very clear, they're never out of a game and they can make the big plays to win the tight ones. A true sign of a championship team. Like I said, on paper, it would make sense for me to take the Niners. Come full circle from my first Super Bowl bet 18 years ago. But I just can't do it.

The Super Bowl outcome the last five or so years has reminded me that paper is meaningless. It's only paper. Say all you want about how great a team's players are. Come Sunday, it only matters how great they are that day.

As I said in my column last week, I think there's a lot to be said for the will to win. How bad a team wants it. I think the same can be said about destiny. The Ravens feel like a team of destiny. Against all odds, when their season was slipping away, the Ravens found a way to turn it all around. In Week 16, the defending Super Bowl champion Giants came to their house, expecting to come up with a big "season-on-the-line" win that would propel them to another Super Bowl run. Only it was the Ravens who did just that. They won that game in dominant fashion and haven't looked back. With both Manning brothers and Tom Brady left in the dirt in their rear view mirror, the Ravens face one more obstacle between them and the Lombardi Trophy: Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers.

It will be the toughest matchup of their lives, but here's why I believe the Ravens will win. Aside from destiny and the will to win, I think the Ravens match up well against San Fran. The Falcons showed us last week that on a turf track the 49ers secondary is vulnerable over the top. Julio Jones and Roddy White went to work on them. With Joe Flacco's arm, Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones' speed and Anquan Boldin's physicality, the Ravens are primed to exploit the 49ers weak spot. For this reason I see the Ravens connecting on a few quick-strike TDs to really deflate any momentum San Francisco might have. I don't think Ray Rice will be a factor, but the 49ers will have to show him respect, which should open up these deep passes for Flacco. So really, in my mind, this game is going to come down to the Ravens front seven versus Colin Kaepernick.

Atlanta chose to take Kaepernick out of the game, which was effective to some degree. But ultimately Frank Gore ran all over them, and it wasn't enough. I know the 2001 Ravens could have prepared for Kaepernick and slowed him down, but an older, slower Ravens defense seems less likely to. With that said, I think they'll be able to contain him just enough to win. They've had two weeks to prepare for this guy. They've already seen RGIII too. So technically they've had three weeks to prepare for a quarterback like this. Let's also remember Kaepernick is still a young guy who's bound to feel some Super Bowl jitters. I think the Ravens defense is opportunistic enough to make the big play when they need it most. Ed Reed wants this Super Bowl. He's been around too long and been too great not to leave the game with a ring. Ray Lewis wants to go out on top and knows how to motivate his team better than anyone in the game. John Harbaugh will not let his little brother take this game from him. He's already taken too much glory away from him in the past.

I think it will be a game to remember. I think it will be a game of runs and momentum swings. And I think we'll be talking about this one for a while.

Against the Spread:
Ravens (+4) over 49ers

The Score:
Ravens 27 - 49ers 24

Image courtesy of Google Images

Championship Weekend

San Francisco at Atlanta 
Everybody and their mother is taking the Niners in this one. Trust me, I've confirmed this with at least six mothers. And after watching Colin Kaepernick run circles around the Packers last week, I was ready to crown the Niners NFC champs as well. But in the last few days, the second guessing started to creep in. Maybe a part of me feels like I owe it to Matt Ryan to at least give him a chance. After all, he helped lead my hometown fantasy team to a second place finish. A place it had no business finishing in, I might add. Maybe memories of doing the "Dirty Bird" after backyard football touchdowns during my childhood are giving me a soft spot towards the Falcons. Or maybe the idea of seeing Jim Harbaugh, King D-Bag, win a Super Bowl, is so excruciatingly painful to imagine, I don't want to give myself any reason to root for San Fran. The truth is, it's probably a mix of all three. But all that aside, Atlanta can very much win this game, and I'll tell you why.

They've got the "Nobody Believes In Us" factor going for them. Maybe more so than any team has ever had it going for them in the history of sport. (With the possible exception of the Toon Squad against the Monstars in Space Jam. And even they had Jordan, so you knew there was a tiny chance). As a Giants fan, I'm an expert on the "Nobody Believes In Us" factor. We road that inspiration to the tune of two Super Bowls in the last five years. Even when people started believing in us, we pretended they didn't. (Side note: Yes, I'm saying "we" because I consider myself part of the Giants organization. I paid for PSLs. A license to own my seat that only counts for Giants tickets. Oh and I have to pay extra for the tickets. But that's a story for another day). Two years ago in Week 15, we were coming off a big victory against Dallas, the division in our reach. People started believing we might take it. So Coughlin, the strategic genius he is, convinced the team to get absolutely dominated by Rex Grossman and the Redskins. I was there. Worst football game I've ever been to. Probably always will be. So bad that I sold my tickets, sat in the last row of the stadium in my buddy's seats, and not only watched the Giants get manhandled by Rex Grossman, but watched my row win free hot dogs. 20 years and my row never won shit. I sell my tickets to sit with my buddy and my row finally wins something. Next thing you knew, nobody believed in the Giants. Bam! Victor Cruz salsa'd all over the Jets and we dismantled the Cowboys. Oh we're just a measly #4 seed? 24-2 Falcons. The Falcons never win? We'll just dominate the Packers in Lambeau. Oh, you beat yourselves Clay Mathews? You don't believe in us? Sorry San Fran. Wait, Kyle Williams handed us that game on a platter? Thanks for the second ring New England. Oh now you believe in us? Fine, we won't make the playoffs next year, so we can come back and win the Super Bowl in our stadium when you don't believe in us again. It's a can't lose formula. The Falcons are the "Nobody Believes In Us" team of 2013. They're dangerous. Getting 4.5 points on their home field (8-1 there this year) against essentially a rookie quarterback, is downright insulting. The whole world has been telling Capernicus he's God's gift all week. If this doesn't scream let down game, I don't know what does.

With that said, I'm still taking the Niners. And my Dad sold me on this with following reasoning: The Niners are going to be hungrier than the Falcons. This was a team that finished one FG short of a trip to the Super Bowl last year. The Niners literally let a Super Bowl trip slip through their finger tips (I'm looking at you Kyle Williams). So close to football immortality. Only to come up an overtime kick short.

Look, I get that the Falcons want to go to the Super Bowl. It's the life dream of everyone on that team. But they can't possibly stir up the hunger San Francisco will have on Sunday. The home crowd, a good air attack and an opportunistic defense will keep Atlanta close. But I find, more often than not, the team with the greatest will to win takes these games. I think that's the case on Sunday.

Against the Spread (Home team in CAPS):
San Francisco (-4.5) over ATLANTA
The Score:
San Francisco 30 - Atlanta 24

Baltimore at New England
Once a win became certain for the Patriots last week, I texted my buddy, "No matter the line, I'm taking the Pats". Then the line came out. 9.5 points?!? 9.5 points?!? Are you serious? Never before has a line boggled my mind so much. I'd say it was the craziest thing I heard all week, but Manti Te'o's dead girlfriend doesn't exist. It doesn't get any crazier than that. What is Vegas thinking? Baltimore versus New England almost always comes down to the last play. In fact, the only time it didn't in recent memory, Baltimore lambasted New England in the playoffs. The teams just seem to be evenly matched. In fact, Baltimore beat New England earlier this season. And in the AFC Championship game last year, they pretty much beat them, then tied them, then lost to them. Flacco out-Brady'd Brady. Harbaugh out-Belichick'd Belichick. It just came down to Billy Cundiff not out-Gostowski-ing Gostowski. So how can you give Baltimore 9.5 points Vegas? How? You're literally begging me to take the Ravens.

The only possible explanation I can think of for this line: Vegas is trying to mind-eff us. Telling us to pick Baltimore, so we're crazy enough to pick the Pats. Oh you want us to pick the Ravens? You're going to make me pick the Ravens? Eff you, I'm taking the Pats. Is Vegas that ballsy? Are we stupid enough to fall for that? Do they really expect us to spite their line like that? I don't know about you guys, but I'm not letting Vegas mind-eff me. This is either Vegas' greatest gift to us, or they've got a guy posing as a Baltimore security guard that's going to shiv Joe Flacco as he's walking through the tunnel on Sunday. I'm going to take my chances with it being Vegas' greatest gift to us degenerate gamblers. I'm taking the Ravens. Let's not forget how hungry Baltimore has to be as well.

Oh, and I'll take the Pats to win the game anyway.

Against the Spread:
Baltimore (+8) over NEW ENGLAND
The Score:
New England 31 - Baltimore 27

Image courtesy of Getty Images

Love/Hate for 2013

It's January 1, 2013, New Year's Day. I'm 25 years old and I hate my job.

Okay, it's not that I hate my job, it's just hard to love it right now.

I once heard Steve Jobs say, "If you love your job, you'll never have to work a day in your life". Every Monday through Friday, and often times on Saturday, I feel like I'm working. That's probably a sign I'm not in love with my job.

I envy the people that can say they love their job. The people that say, "I can't believe I get paid to do this". I want to be one of those people.

So what do I love to do then? Well, like any man, I love sports. An industry that's more competitive than any other to be apart of. Every guy wants to be there. And now that former athletes are cashing in on open analyst jobs, it's even more impossible for a tired accountant like myself to break into the business.

But guys like Bill Simmons and Matthew Berry give me hope. The nerdy sports fans that can go toe-to-toe with any former player, and even go beyond them with their unparalleled writing skills.

So using these guys as my motivation, it's time to make my leap of faith. I don't want to look back on my life in five years and say to myself, "Why did you put yourself through that misery?" I want to love my job.

So with all of this talk about love and hate, I thought it fitting to burst on the sports writing scene with my own version of Matthew Berry's Love/Hate fantasy column.

Quarterbacks I Love for 2013:

Robert Griffin III:
I've been a Giants fan my whole life. Football starts and ends with the Giants for me. As such, I vehemently despise the likes of the Cowboys, Eagles and Redskins. It's written in my DNA. But with all that said, I still can't help but like RGIII. He's a class act, the ultimate leader and competitor and an athlete like we've never seen before. He's the mismatch from Hell. And he's going to be in my division (barring any injuries) for the next 10 years. There's a reason I desperately wanted the Giants to win it all this year. This was their chance to be seen as a dynasty. Before it was too late. Before RGIII took over this division and ran away with it. Too late. It's already his. RG3 will be in my nightmares for the next 10 football seasons. He'll be carrying teams to fantasy championships during that time period as well.
Editor's Update: Two weeks after this column, RGIII tore his ACL and LCL. Not exactly loving this guy anymore. At least half this list isn't Washington Redskins. Oh, it is?? Well, now I only "Like" the Washington players. I no longer "Love" them.

Cam Newton:
Remember when we all thought Cam Newton had been cursed by the sophomore slump? That he was no different from any other rookie sensation turned second year fantasy bust of the past? Well, five sensational performances later, he was the #5 ranked player in Yahoo! standard scoring leagues. Go figure. Teams that were one bad week away from elimination, kicking themselves for believing in Cam, found themselves fighting for fantasy championships in Week 16. Cam is figuring  it all out. I myself would jump at the chance to grab Cam next year and reap the fantasy rewards he brings in 2013. He's proving he can do it on the ground AND through the air.

Russell Wilson:
Are you seeing a trend here? These young guys aren't the future of fantasy. They're the present. And Russell Wilson is a gift I'd like to open on draft day next September. My expectations were low for this guy coming into 2012. It didn't look like he could throw a spiral on his college tapes and I wasn't sure he'd even be able to see his shotty class of receivers over that big offensive line. When the season began, the Seahawks used him conservatively, road their strong defense and running game and Russell proved he could manage the game enough for the Seahawks to compete. But it was pretty clear he would never light up the fantasy scoreboard. Then Pete Carroll unleashed him. Wilson finished the year with 40, 30, and 26 point efforts in fantasy. His 40-point effort against Buffalo carried one of my teams into the league championship (spot start of my life). Much like RG3, Wilson is proving to be just as lethal through the air as he is on the ground. The spread option threat is really opening up his passing lanes. If Wilson falls to the fifth round, which I imagine he will, I'm snatching him.

Quarterbacks I Hate:

Andrew Luck:
Andrew Luck is going to be a phenomenal quarterback for years to come in the NFL. The Colts traded away the best player in the history of its franchise, he cruised to a 13-3 record, notching home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and nobody in Indy gives an eff. That's amazing! Literally, amazing! That's how good this kid is. That's how good he'll look to be for the next 15 years. With that said, I'm not high on Andrew Luck for next season. Will he have big weeks? Of course. But he's too inconsistent. And the Colts are due for a let down. They road a significant streak of inspiration with Chuck Pagano that they won't be able to replicate this year. Teams are going to take them more seriously. Reggie Wayne will be a year older. Luck will digress from a fantasy perspective. You heard it here first. Everyone is already saying he's a QB1 next year. I'm saying he's not.

Matt Ryan:
Matty Ice was "Nice!" for my fantasy team this year. I picked him up in Round 5 and road his hot streaks to a second place finish. Matty wanted to be in the elite conversation, and he stepped up. He'll still probably lose in the first round of the playoffs, but when it comes to the regular season, he's been pretty damn good. Even so, Matt Ryan will not be that good this year. Gonzalez is gone, the offense is predictable with no rushing attack and the Falcons are due for a let down. You can't finish first in the NFC two out of three seasons, never make it past the first round and still have the will to come out and do it again. Imagine spending 16 weeks dishing out the finest game you can spit to the girl of your dreams and she still shuts you down at the big dance? Are you gonna be like, "I'll do even better next year!" or are you gonna be like, "Maybe it's just not meant to be"? Ladies and gentlemen, the Atlanta Falcons! As they melt, so will Matty Ice's fantasy luster.

Eli Manning (only in fantasy)
I have an unconditional love for Eli Manning. Always have. Always will. He could force the Giants to trade him to the Eagles, win three Super Bowls and kick me in the nuts, and I'd still probably love him. But damnit, Eli Manning sucks as a fantasy quarterback. Peyton may have tipped him off on the Patriots weaknesses, but when it comes to fantasy advice, Peyton hasn't given Eli shit. He's the most bipolar fantasy quarterback of our generation. 500 yards and 4 TDs one week. 118 yards and 3 INTs the next week. Just stay away from him. You already knew this. But if your new to fantasy this year. Just stay very far away.

Running Backs I Love:

Adrian Peterson:
I took him in the third round last year with the full expectation he would re-tear the ACL on his first lateral cut. I held my breath every carry for the first six weeks. Then Peterson put on the most impressive fantasy run I've ever seen. Much like the Vikings, he took my team, put it on his back, and carried it to a fantasy championship it had no business being in. He's the league MVP. He just came up nine yards shy of the single season rushing record during a recovery year he came back six weeks too early for. This is your number 1 overall pick. No questions asked. Just nod and click draft. You're welcome.

Alfred Morris:
As long as this guy is running beside Robert Griffin III, he's going to be fantasy gold. 1600 yards as a rookie. He literally doesn't get the ball until its been predetermined the defensive end is pursuing the quarterback by mistake. It's just not fair. The Redskins offense is playing chess while the opposing defenses are playing checkers.

C.J. Spiller:
I'm going to assume Fred Jackson is going to take on a reduced role this year. And if that's not [Insert Chan Gailey's replacement here]'s plan, I'm going to have to assume Fred Jackson will get hurt and miss significant time anyway. The man is as durable as a paper umbrella in the middle of a nor'easter. C.J. Spiller is going to be a fantasy stud for years to come in this league. He averaged 6.8 yards per touch this year, which translates to over 1,700 yards in only 250 touches. By comparison, Arian Foster had 1,641 yards in 391 touches. The Bills would be crazy not to feed Spiller the ball more. Now let's not underestimate the Bills, but I think Spiller's in for a huge year.

Wide Receivers I Love:

Okay, let's get the obvious out of the way:

Calvin Johnson: 
He started slow. He was cursed by Madden. He got tackled at the one yard line six times. His quarterback had an awful year. And he still shattered the single-season receiving record, came just shy of 2,000 yards and led all fantasy WRs in points.

Brandon Marshall:
I'm pretty sure Brandon Marshall averaged 37 targets per game last year. His supporting cast is so pitiful, Cutler literally feels the need to throw to him on every play. Defenses know this, and Cutler throws it anyway. You can't argue with targets like that. 118 receptions, 1508 yards, 11 TDs. He was the most consistent receiver in fantasy from Week 1 to Week 16.

Dez Bryant:
Dez was the "X-Factor" in my big play league last year. It's a league that doesn't award negative points for mistakes, the scoring is based on offensive plateau's (i.e. 60-75 yds receiving is 3 points, 76-90 is 6 points, etc.) and awards bonus points for big play TDs (i.e. 10 yard TD - 6 points + 3, 25 yard TD - 6 points +6). In short: it's awesome. Safe to say his 224 yards and 2, 58 yard TD receptions in Week 16 helped pave the way to a league title for me and my co-manager. As such, Dez holds a special place in my fantasy heart. I don't know if it was the curfew, added experience or what, but Dez figured it out in Week 9. Nothing would indicate he's going to slow down going further either.

Now onto the less obvious...

Michael Crabtree:
My favorite college WR of all-time (sorry Peter Warrick) is finally starting to get it together. Either that or he's finally got a quarterback who isn't afraid to hurl the pigskin more than 6 yards down the field. Regardless, Michael Crabtree is starting to make noise.

Let's compare the last five games of the 2012 season for two players blind:

Player A - 56 targets, 35 receptions, 538 yards, 15.6 ypc, 4 TDs
Player B - 56 targets, 42 receptions, 546 yards, 13.4 ypc, 1 TD

Player A is Michael Crabtree. Player B is Andre Johnson. Johnson had two 140+ yard efforts over that stretch as well. The fact of the matter is, Michael Crabtree is really good with Colin Kaepernick under center. We are starting to see shades of the player Michael Crabtree was in college. I'm taking my chances with this guy next year. I might even pick him a round too early to make sure I get him. That's how much I like this guy's potential.

T.Y. Hilton:
Here's an even more surprising blind player comparison over the last seven games of the 2012 season:

Player A - 82 targets, 37 receptions, 424 yards, 11.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Player B - 46 targets, 26 receptions, 506 yards, 20.0 ypc, 5 TDs

Player B is T.Y. Hilton. Player A...is Reggie Wayne. The ratio of receptions to targets for Wayne is alarming. Granted Luck was a little erratic, but he's throwing to both of these guys. Those statistics are over a seven game stretch too. If you're trying to grab a Colt at wide out, your best option is clearly Hilton. It took the rookie a little while to get going, but he really heated up in the second half. Next year, he's going to put up some big fantasy numbers.

Pierre Garcon:
Are you starting to see a real Redskin's trend here? As a Giants fan this is killing me, but I have to give credit where credit is due. The Skin's offense is built for fantasy right now. Garcon missed significant time this year, played hurt and even lost his quarterback a few times. Prorate his stats over a 16 game season and he's a 1,000 yard receiver with 6 or 7 TDs. Not bad, considering this would be in a season where both he and his quarterback were playing hurt. When healthy, the biggest beneficiary on the Redskins' receiving core is going to be Pierre Garcon. He's a WR3 worth taking a chance on.

Wide Receivers I Hate:
Cecil Shorts: 
(See: Tebow, Tim)
Editor's Update: Jacksonville's new GM refuses to acquire Tebow. Cecil is looking better already. For those of you in any Canadian Football Fantasy League's. Be sure to steer clear of Tebow's receiving core.

Brandon Lloyd:
Long gone are the days when Tom Brady airs it out up the field. The system is simple: Work the tight ends up the middle. The short out routes to Welker. Pound the run game when the defense is giving it to you. (Nowhere on that list does it say: Throw it deep to Brandon Lloyd).

Mike Wallace:
Still not sure where Mike Wallace will end up next year, but a lot of signs are pointing to Miami. Tannehill might turn out to be pretty good, but things just don't seem to work out for wide receivers down there. Four games against Aqib Talib and Darrelle Revis too? A quarter of his season is already looking gloom.

Reggie Wayne:
Father time will catch him eventually. You already saw the player comparison above with Hilton. As Luck begins to trust his second and third options, Wayne's production will continue to drop.

Anyone on the Philadelphia Eagles:
This doesn't even have anything to do with fantasy. I just really don't like the Eagles.

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