Championship Weekend

San Francisco at Atlanta 
Everybody and their mother is taking the Niners in this one. Trust me, I've confirmed this with at least six mothers. And after watching Colin Kaepernick run circles around the Packers last week, I was ready to crown the Niners NFC champs as well. But in the last few days, the second guessing started to creep in. Maybe a part of me feels like I owe it to Matt Ryan to at least give him a chance. After all, he helped lead my hometown fantasy team to a second place finish. A place it had no business finishing in, I might add. Maybe memories of doing the "Dirty Bird" after backyard football touchdowns during my childhood are giving me a soft spot towards the Falcons. Or maybe the idea of seeing Jim Harbaugh, King D-Bag, win a Super Bowl, is so excruciatingly painful to imagine, I don't want to give myself any reason to root for San Fran. The truth is, it's probably a mix of all three. But all that aside, Atlanta can very much win this game, and I'll tell you why.

They've got the "Nobody Believes In Us" factor going for them. Maybe more so than any team has ever had it going for them in the history of sport. (With the possible exception of the Toon Squad against the Monstars in Space Jam. And even they had Jordan, so you knew there was a tiny chance). As a Giants fan, I'm an expert on the "Nobody Believes In Us" factor. We road that inspiration to the tune of two Super Bowls in the last five years. Even when people started believing in us, we pretended they didn't. (Side note: Yes, I'm saying "we" because I consider myself part of the Giants organization. I paid for PSLs. A license to own my seat that only counts for Giants tickets. Oh and I have to pay extra for the tickets. But that's a story for another day). Two years ago in Week 15, we were coming off a big victory against Dallas, the division in our reach. People started believing we might take it. So Coughlin, the strategic genius he is, convinced the team to get absolutely dominated by Rex Grossman and the Redskins. I was there. Worst football game I've ever been to. Probably always will be. So bad that I sold my tickets, sat in the last row of the stadium in my buddy's seats, and not only watched the Giants get manhandled by Rex Grossman, but watched my row win free hot dogs. 20 years and my row never won shit. I sell my tickets to sit with my buddy and my row finally wins something. Next thing you knew, nobody believed in the Giants. Bam! Victor Cruz salsa'd all over the Jets and we dismantled the Cowboys. Oh we're just a measly #4 seed? 24-2 Falcons. The Falcons never win? We'll just dominate the Packers in Lambeau. Oh, you beat yourselves Clay Mathews? You don't believe in us? Sorry San Fran. Wait, Kyle Williams handed us that game on a platter? Thanks for the second ring New England. Oh now you believe in us? Fine, we won't make the playoffs next year, so we can come back and win the Super Bowl in our stadium when you don't believe in us again. It's a can't lose formula. The Falcons are the "Nobody Believes In Us" team of 2013. They're dangerous. Getting 4.5 points on their home field (8-1 there this year) against essentially a rookie quarterback, is downright insulting. The whole world has been telling Capernicus he's God's gift all week. If this doesn't scream let down game, I don't know what does.

With that said, I'm still taking the Niners. And my Dad sold me on this with following reasoning: The Niners are going to be hungrier than the Falcons. This was a team that finished one FG short of a trip to the Super Bowl last year. The Niners literally let a Super Bowl trip slip through their finger tips (I'm looking at you Kyle Williams). So close to football immortality. Only to come up an overtime kick short.

Look, I get that the Falcons want to go to the Super Bowl. It's the life dream of everyone on that team. But they can't possibly stir up the hunger San Francisco will have on Sunday. The home crowd, a good air attack and an opportunistic defense will keep Atlanta close. But I find, more often than not, the team with the greatest will to win takes these games. I think that's the case on Sunday.

Against the Spread (Home team in CAPS):
San Francisco (-4.5) over ATLANTA
The Score:
San Francisco 30 - Atlanta 24

Baltimore at New England
Once a win became certain for the Patriots last week, I texted my buddy, "No matter the line, I'm taking the Pats". Then the line came out. 9.5 points?!? 9.5 points?!? Are you serious? Never before has a line boggled my mind so much. I'd say it was the craziest thing I heard all week, but Manti Te'o's dead girlfriend doesn't exist. It doesn't get any crazier than that. What is Vegas thinking? Baltimore versus New England almost always comes down to the last play. In fact, the only time it didn't in recent memory, Baltimore lambasted New England in the playoffs. The teams just seem to be evenly matched. In fact, Baltimore beat New England earlier this season. And in the AFC Championship game last year, they pretty much beat them, then tied them, then lost to them. Flacco out-Brady'd Brady. Harbaugh out-Belichick'd Belichick. It just came down to Billy Cundiff not out-Gostowski-ing Gostowski. So how can you give Baltimore 9.5 points Vegas? How? You're literally begging me to take the Ravens.

The only possible explanation I can think of for this line: Vegas is trying to mind-eff us. Telling us to pick Baltimore, so we're crazy enough to pick the Pats. Oh you want us to pick the Ravens? You're going to make me pick the Ravens? Eff you, I'm taking the Pats. Is Vegas that ballsy? Are we stupid enough to fall for that? Do they really expect us to spite their line like that? I don't know about you guys, but I'm not letting Vegas mind-eff me. This is either Vegas' greatest gift to us, or they've got a guy posing as a Baltimore security guard that's going to shiv Joe Flacco as he's walking through the tunnel on Sunday. I'm going to take my chances with it being Vegas' greatest gift to us degenerate gamblers. I'm taking the Ravens. Let's not forget how hungry Baltimore has to be as well.

Oh, and I'll take the Pats to win the game anyway.

Against the Spread:
Baltimore (+8) over NEW ENGLAND
The Score:
New England 31 - Baltimore 27

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