Super Bowl Sunday

When I was seven years old I bet my mom $20 the 49ers would beat the Chargers in the Super Bowl. It was my first sports bet and I remember it to this day. I was so excited all week leading up to the game. My mom would poke fun at me saying the Chargers were going to win, while I firmly believed there was no way the 49ers could ever lose to them. It wasn't until the Saturday before the big game when my mom revealed why she was so confident in her pick all week. An exchange to this degree went down:

Mom: "Ya know, the 49ers have to cover the spread for you to win."
Me (a little worried): "The spread? What's a spread?"
Mom (pointing to the line in the morning paper): "The spread means the 49ers have to win by more than 18 1/2 points for you to win the bet".
Me: "What?! Are you kidding me?! No way!"

I still remember my Dad laughing across the table. At this point I was in disbelief. I felt cheated, but I was still confident the 49ers could pull it off. I agreed to the bet and throughout the game put my above average math skills to the test that Sunday, keeping track of the point spread the whole time.

The 49ers won that game by 23 points. I won the bet by 5.5 points. I have to imagine Vegas won that bet too. Vegas basically dared everybody to take the Chargers. And I bet many people did. Didn't fool the naive 7-year-old from New Jersey though. I was sticking to my guns.

I loved that 49ers team. As a Giants fan, I hated the Cowboys (still do). Only the Cowboys owned the Giants. The G-men never stood a chance against them. The 49ers were one of the only teams that could really go toe-to-toe with them. Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Deion Sanders. The Niners were explosive. Fun to watch. When I wasn't watching Dave Brown take sacks and throw interceptions, I was watching Steve Young loft deep balls into the outstretched arms of the sure-handed Jerry Rice.

That was the Niners fifth Super Bowl championship in as many tries. And it was the last time they were ever in the Super Bowl. On paper, the game was a no-brainer. I made my pick with supreme confidence. In the years to come I saw the Cowboys, Packers, Broncos (twice), Rams and Ravens all win Super Bowls. All coming in as the better team on paper. But since then a lot has changed. We saw the Patriots take down the greatest show on turf. The Giants ruin the Patriots perfect season. Tracy Porter intercept Peyton Manning's claim to be maybe the greatest ever. A 9-7 Cardinals team narrowly lose to the heavily-favored Steelers. And a sixth seeded Packers team cruise to a title. The game has become any team's for the taking.

This year, the Niners are the better team on paper. Hands down. They're just complete on both sides of the ball; boasting arguably the best defense in the NFL and now, with the addition of Colin Kaepernick, maybe the most explosive offense in the NFL as well. It doesn't seem like there's any situation the Niners can't handle. They held off a ferocious comeback by the Pats on Monday night in New England. They overcame a 17-point deficit on the road in Atlanta two weeks ago. The Niners have made it very clear, they're never out of a game and they can make the big plays to win the tight ones. A true sign of a championship team. Like I said, on paper, it would make sense for me to take the Niners. Come full circle from my first Super Bowl bet 18 years ago. But I just can't do it.

The Super Bowl outcome the last five or so years has reminded me that paper is meaningless. It's only paper. Say all you want about how great a team's players are. Come Sunday, it only matters how great they are that day.

As I said in my column last week, I think there's a lot to be said for the will to win. How bad a team wants it. I think the same can be said about destiny. The Ravens feel like a team of destiny. Against all odds, when their season was slipping away, the Ravens found a way to turn it all around. In Week 16, the defending Super Bowl champion Giants came to their house, expecting to come up with a big "season-on-the-line" win that would propel them to another Super Bowl run. Only it was the Ravens who did just that. They won that game in dominant fashion and haven't looked back. With both Manning brothers and Tom Brady left in the dirt in their rear view mirror, the Ravens face one more obstacle between them and the Lombardi Trophy: Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers.

It will be the toughest matchup of their lives, but here's why I believe the Ravens will win. Aside from destiny and the will to win, I think the Ravens match up well against San Fran. The Falcons showed us last week that on a turf track the 49ers secondary is vulnerable over the top. Julio Jones and Roddy White went to work on them. With Joe Flacco's arm, Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones' speed and Anquan Boldin's physicality, the Ravens are primed to exploit the 49ers weak spot. For this reason I see the Ravens connecting on a few quick-strike TDs to really deflate any momentum San Francisco might have. I don't think Ray Rice will be a factor, but the 49ers will have to show him respect, which should open up these deep passes for Flacco. So really, in my mind, this game is going to come down to the Ravens front seven versus Colin Kaepernick.

Atlanta chose to take Kaepernick out of the game, which was effective to some degree. But ultimately Frank Gore ran all over them, and it wasn't enough. I know the 2001 Ravens could have prepared for Kaepernick and slowed him down, but an older, slower Ravens defense seems less likely to. With that said, I think they'll be able to contain him just enough to win. They've had two weeks to prepare for this guy. They've already seen RGIII too. So technically they've had three weeks to prepare for a quarterback like this. Let's also remember Kaepernick is still a young guy who's bound to feel some Super Bowl jitters. I think the Ravens defense is opportunistic enough to make the big play when they need it most. Ed Reed wants this Super Bowl. He's been around too long and been too great not to leave the game with a ring. Ray Lewis wants to go out on top and knows how to motivate his team better than anyone in the game. John Harbaugh will not let his little brother take this game from him. He's already taken too much glory away from him in the past.

I think it will be a game to remember. I think it will be a game of runs and momentum swings. And I think we'll be talking about this one for a while.

Against the Spread:
Ravens (+4) over 49ers

The Score:
Ravens 27 - 49ers 24

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