Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Evaluating Michael Crabtree's Fantasy Value in 2013
While everyone was busy getting caught up in the hype surrounding Colin Kaepernick, it was easy to overlook San Francisco's biggest beneficiary: Michael Crabtree. In 2012, Crabtree set career marks in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Normally 1,100 yards and 9 TDs wouldn't blow you away. But when you take into account his production with Colin Kaepernick, it's easy to see why Crabtree could be in for a huge fantasy year.
Take a look at this blind comparison:
Player A - 39 receptions (55 targets), 440 yards, 11.3 ypc, 3 TDs
Player B - 46 receptions (72 targets), 665 yards, 14.5 ypc, 6 TDs
Both players are Michael Crabtree. Threw in a little curve ball this time. Player A is Michael Crabtree in the first 8 games of the season with Alex Smith under center. Player B is Michael Crabtree in the last 8 games of the season with Colin Kaepernick under center. Throw in the playoffs (20 receptions (28 targets), 285 yards, 14.4 ypc, 3 TDs), and the benefit Kaepernick provides Crabtree becomes even more obvious. Against the league's best competition, Colin and Michael shined even brighter.
You have to remember Colin was only 11 games into his pro career at season's end. He matured more and more each game. As did Colin and Michael's chemistry.
Extrapolate those 11 games together over a 16 game season and Crabtree finishes with these numbers:
96 receptions (145 targets), 1,382 yards, 14.4 ypc, 13 TDs (216.2 fantasy points)
Calvin Johnson, in a year in which he set the single-season record for receiving yards, had 220.4 fantasy points. Brandon Marshall followed with 216.6. Dez Bryant was next with 207.7. That means, if Crabtree and Kaepernick continued on the same pace for a full season, Michael would have been the third highest scorer among all fantasy wide receivers in 2012. That's not even considering the fact his stats were rising with each game, as his rookie quarterback gained experience. Who knows? Crabtree might have even outperformed Calvin. Maybe not in total yardage, but in fantasy points, he would have had a legitimate shot.
I'm not saying Michael Crabtree should be the #1 wide receiver off the board next year, but I am saying his 2013 stats could potentially make him worthy of the honor. He's a WR2 at worst. I'd even argue, he's a definitive WR1.
Don't forget how good this guy was in college:
Image courtesy of Google Images
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