10. Robert Griffin III
Even after the knee injury RGIII needs to be a QB1 in all 10-team format leagues. As great of a runner as he is, I was more impressed by his ability to throw from the pocket this year. The guy was launching 60 yard bombs into windows smaller than a bread basket. Major knee surgery or not defenses will have to respect his ability to run, which means his receivers will be open up the field. The reason I drop him down to #10 is because of the threat of injury. Two torn ACLs in four years. He hasn't proven he can sustain the hits or completely avoid them in the open field. He's one bad cut or Bernard Pollard tackle away from ruining your fantasy season.
9. Matthew Stafford
I'm starting to think Matthew Stafford might be a fraud. What if Calvin Johnson is so unbelievably good that Matthew Stafford is actually another #1 bust? Only Calvin has turned him into a respectable quarterback with his inhuman abilities. I'm starting to think that's in the realm of possibilities. Let's face it. The Lions only had one answer through the air. Titus Young was flat out laughable. Brandon Pettigrew wasn't impressing anyone either. I don't care how many different arm angles Matthew Stafford can throw the ball from. His stats rise and fall with Calvin Johnson touchdown catches. And his dependence on Megatron might be doing him more harm than good. He seems to think he can force any ball to the guy. Seventeen interceptions and a losing season later, I hope he's learned his lesson. Until Matthew Stafford shows me he can make the pieces around Calvin better, I'm not trusting this guy as my fantasy quarterback. Broyles and Pettigrew are there. Use them Matthew.
8. Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan was my must draft QB this past season in fantasy. I wanted value in the fifth round or later for my quarterback. Matty Ice was the obvious choice. Ryan made huge strides as a quarterback this year. He made a case for the ever-popular, overly-argued "elite" status after a year of bolstered stats, big throws and impressive come-from-behind victories. Had it not been for a forgettable second half against the Niners in the NFC championship game, Matt Ryan might be a Super Bowl champion with an even higher ceiling awaiting him. With the loss though, we're only left to assume Matt hasn't quite figured it out yet. Now it's up to Matt to decide if these continued woes are going to make him more discouraged or desired. In my opinion, the desire will still be there, but the stats will dip. Ryan is losing his most prized offensive possession. His rock. Tony Gonzalez. Tony's impact can't be understated. He was an absolute monster. Harder to cover now than he was ten years ago. In the red zone, on third down, Ryan relied on Gonzalez over and over again. Julio and Roddy will still be there, but a lot of what they accomplished was as a result of the necessary attention Gonzalez received from opposing defenses. Without TG, Ryan's numbers will regress.
7. Colin Kaepernick
I am most curious to see where Colin Kaepernick winds up getting drafted this year. My guess is he'll be overvalued. It's easy to remember the gaudy stats he put up in the playoffs last year, but it's funny how quickly we forget the unimpressive games just weeks before (St. Louis, Seattle, etc.). If you recall, Alex Smith had a performance for the ages in the playoffs against the Saints just a year before. You didn't quite see that resonate with his 2012 fantasy stats. I know, I know, this is different. Kaepernick is the offensive spark plug, getting better with each game. The kid was born to run the pistol offense. He ran the pilot at the University of Nevada and NFL defensive coordinators are throwing fits trying to stop it. But the NFL also hasn't had seven months to figure out a way to stop that offense. They do now. 2013 will be the biggest test for the spread-option. Kaepernick, Wilson and Griffin have challenged the league to find a way to stop it. Come September, we'll see if the league can. I have a strange feeling it can't. It's a numbers game. The quarterback doesn't decide who gets the ball until the defense is undermanned. And the need to respect the run creates huge passing lanes down field. Kaep, RG3 and Russell can throw too. They're hybrids; an offensive nightmare. Ultimately, I think the only thing that can't stop the spread-option right now is injury (as we unfortunately saw with RG3). As such, for now, I think the spread-option is here to stay. This will contribute to huge fantasy weeks for Kaepernick. However the one down side to Kaepernick's value is that defenses have a choice when defending the spread-option. They can shut the running back out of the mix or the quarterback. So even though Kaep will have some monster fantasy weeks, I expect him to lay idle as a spectator in others, while Frank Gore reaps the rewards. In fantasy, inconsistency can be quite detrimental. You'll love Colin some weeks and hate him others. Expect to see him finish the year closer to #10 than #1. I do believe he'll be worth the start though. His fantasy ceiling is through the roof. Is the risk worth it?
6. Russell Wilson
It should probably be noted this ranking should be taken with a side of bias. I am developing an unhealthy man crush on this guy (he's even in the banner of my website). It all started with his 40-point fantasy performance in Week 15 against the Bills. That spot start single-handedly sent my team to the championship. Safe to say Wilson swept me off my feet on our first date. I'm just more and more impressed with the guy each week. He's never flustered, always seems to make the right decision and doesn't fear the big moment. It's funny too, because I was so low on Russell Wilson after the draft. I wasn't sure he could throw a spiral. But Wilson quickly showed us what he showed the Seahawks in training camp. He's a winner and a leader. Carroll played it cool with him through 10 or 12 games, relying on defense and the run game to carry the Seahawks. Then he unleashed Wilson. That's when the Seahawks became bonafide contenders. He'll be unleashed starting Week 1 next year. His fantasy stats will reflect that too. He was the #8 ranked QB in points in a season he was conservatively used 75% of the time. Next year, I think it's skies the limit. Go Hawks!
5. Peyton Manning
I fully expect Peyton Manning to do two things this year: 1) Give away 3 million free Papa John's pizzas. And 2) Finish 2013 as the 5th ranked fantasy QB. Peyton was pretty low on my draft board last season. His preseason throws were wobbling more than weebles. But he quickly put my criticisms to bed in Week 1, only getting better with each game. 4,600 yards and 37 TDs later, it's safe to say I was wrong about him. He's only going to get better folks. If fantasy carried over into the playoffs, I'd tell you to shy away from Peyton. But lucky for him, it doesn't. Which makes him a fantasy stud.
4. Tom Brady
Last season I had Tom Brady at #2, this season he's slipping to #4. It's not that I don't think Tom will be as effective this year. The guy is going to be a stud for your team. You really can't go wrong with any quarterback in the top 5. But it seems the Patriots have made a conscious effort to commit to the run. We're seeing a lot more hand-offs near the goal-line than we have in the past. I also can't definitively say Wes Welker is coming back next year. Edelman may be a phenomenal replacement, but he's still a poor man's Wes if you ask me. As such, I'm slipping Brady down a few spots for 2013. $57 million guaranteed, a super model wife and a house with a friggin moat? I think he'll get over it.
3. Aaron Rodgers
Any analyst will argue Aaron Rodgers is the best fantasy QB in the game - hands down. I choose to go against the grain here. Two years in a row we've seen Drew Brees outscore Rodgers and get outranked by him. Call me crazy, but doesn't the team with the most fantasy points win the match-up? Somebody should probably discount double check that (Yes, I went there. I'm sorry). Rodgers may have the best skill set in the game, but with a shaky offensive line, no run game and a seemingly always unhealthy supporting cast around him, the guy can only do so much. I say this year "so much" is a top 3 finish in points. No more.
2. Cam Newton
As a rookie, Cam started fast and finished slow. As a sophomore, Cam started slow and finished fast. Just when we thought even the great Cam Newton couldn't avoid a sophomore slump, he came out and torched fantasy opponents down the stretch. For some teams, it was too little too late, but for a lot of teams, it turned their seasons around en route to a championship. This year, I expect Cam Newton to put it all together. Start strong and finish strong. Considering he's finished his first two seasons as a top five fantasy quarterback with limited production for half a season in each, I think it's safe to say some sound Newton play for 16 weeks makes him the #2 if not the #1 QB in fantasy. If you're looking QB first, I'd make a play for this guy.
1. Drew Brees
Who's the number 1 fantasy QB in 2013? Ha, this one's a Brees (And you thought it couldn't be worse than the discount double check line). Drew throws for 5,000 yards and 40 TDs in his sleep. A sleep induced by Nyquil to boot. It's kind of alarming. This year he did it without Sean Payton. Reeeunited and it feels so goooood. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Drew Brees throws for 5,000 yards and 40+ TDs. Just a hunch. Will he throw 20 interceptions? Probably. But that minus-40 isn't going to hurt that bad when he's putting up 5,000 yards and 40 TDs to go along with it. The rankings might say Aaron Rodgers is the #1 fantasy QB option, but the point totals point to Brees.
Honorable Mention:
Tony Romo (Uwww so close Tony. Kind of like that extra point scramble in your first playoff choke job.)
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