Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Evaluating Michael Crabtree's Fantasy Value in 2013
While everyone was busy getting caught up in the hype surrounding Colin Kaepernick, it was easy to overlook San Francisco's biggest beneficiary: Michael Crabtree. In 2012, Crabtree set career marks in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Normally 1,100 yards and 9 TDs wouldn't blow you away. But when you take into account his production with Colin Kaepernick, it's easy to see why Crabtree could be in for a huge fantasy year.
Take a look at this blind comparison:
Player A - 39 receptions (55 targets), 440 yards, 11.3 ypc, 3 TDs
Player B - 46 receptions (72 targets), 665 yards, 14.5 ypc, 6 TDs
Both players are Michael Crabtree. Threw in a little curve ball this time. Player A is Michael Crabtree in the first 8 games of the season with Alex Smith under center. Player B is Michael Crabtree in the last 8 games of the season with Colin Kaepernick under center. Throw in the playoffs (20 receptions (28 targets), 285 yards, 14.4 ypc, 3 TDs), and the benefit Kaepernick provides Crabtree becomes even more obvious. Against the league's best competition, Colin and Michael shined even brighter.
You have to remember Colin was only 11 games into his pro career at season's end. He matured more and more each game. As did Colin and Michael's chemistry.
Extrapolate those 11 games together over a 16 game season and Crabtree finishes with these numbers:
96 receptions (145 targets), 1,382 yards, 14.4 ypc, 13 TDs (216.2 fantasy points)
Calvin Johnson, in a year in which he set the single-season record for receiving yards, had 220.4 fantasy points. Brandon Marshall followed with 216.6. Dez Bryant was next with 207.7. That means, if Crabtree and Kaepernick continued on the same pace for a full season, Michael would have been the third highest scorer among all fantasy wide receivers in 2012. That's not even considering the fact his stats were rising with each game, as his rookie quarterback gained experience. Who knows? Crabtree might have even outperformed Calvin. Maybe not in total yardage, but in fantasy points, he would have had a legitimate shot.
I'm not saying Michael Crabtree should be the #1 wide receiver off the board next year, but I am saying his 2013 stats could potentially make him worthy of the honor. He's a WR2 at worst. I'd even argue, he's a definitive WR1.
Don't forget how good this guy was in college:
Image courtesy of Google Images
Friday, March 1, 2013
Top 10 Fantasy WRs for 2013
10. Percy Harvin
The fact that one of Christian Ponder's receivers made the top 10 might amaze you. As it should. Despite Ponder's ineptitude (sorry Samantha Steele), Percy has been a certified fantasy stud the last few years. Headache's and injuries have prevented him from reaching his true potential, but I really believe with a healthy season, this guy becomes a WR1. Even better, you can still probably draft him as a WR2. Catching the ball, throwing the ball, returning the ball, Harvin is a threat to score with any touch. With rumors Percy might be shopped elsewhere, I'm even more excited about the prospect of this guy. If he shredded defenses with Christian Ponder, imagine what he can do with a guy like Tom Brady? Let's not forget Harvin was considered an MVP candidate by some before his injury opened the door for AP to run away with it. If Harvin's available in the third round, you best be selecting him.
9. Roddy White
Everybody seems to want to pass the Falcons #1 receiver baton from Roddy to Julio, but the old man just won't give it up. He's still the more reliable target for Matt Ryan. He doesn't have Julio's flair for the spectacular, but you can't argue with consistency when it comes to fantasy stats. I personally believe the playoffs were a sign of what's to come for Julio; a changing of the guard if you will. Roddy won't be far behind him though. Julio's the big play man, but when Ryan needs a third down conversion or Julio draws additional defenders, Roddy will undoubtedly be his go-to man.
8. Julio Jones
When I said Roddy wasn't far behind Julio, I wasn't kidding. I literally meant he would be right behind him on this list. As mentioned above, Julio's the big play guy with a flair for the spectacular. He will make your jaws drop on some touchdown catches. Yes, his occasional inconsistency and the fact that he will share the load with Roddy drops him down a few notches on the list, but he's worth building a fantasy receiving core around.
7. Eric Decker
Peyton Manning has done it again. Say what you want about the guy's playoff history, but there are no kinks in his fantasy armor. I didn't think it was possible to quarterback two wide receivers into the top seven, but somehow Peyton proved me wrong. The only thing more impressive than Decker's fantasy play on the field last year was Decker's fantasy play at home (I'm only speculating, but come on look at his fiance):
If that doesn't motivate you to continue to be great on a football field, I don't know what does. Eric Decker's going to do just fine next season. He's certainly not going to lose any confidence.
6. Vincent Jackson
Many people had reservations about drafting Jackson after he ditched Phillip Rivers for a bigger contract and the slumping sophomore Josh Freeman. Only the deal made Jackson even better. Turns out Josh Freeman's cannon of an arm is more effective at finding the deep threat Jackson than Rivers' unorthodox shot-put style that seems to find defenders hands more than teammates. Who would have thought? Apparently me, since I stayed away from Jackson last year. Now Jackson finds himself on an on-the-rise young team with a great young quarterback about to enter his fourth season. A season that almost always bring substantial QB improvement (I say almost because Mark Sanchez rewrote the book this year). I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson finishes higher than this. Not much will separate him from the top 5.
5. A.J. Green
Fun fact: The following players outscored A.J. Green over the last four games of the 2012 season: Lance Moore, Justin Blackmon, Greg Little, Kenny Britt and Rod Streater. (Collectively: Who?!?) You heard me, Rod Streater. At a time when you needed production most, A.J. Green abandoned you. As great a receiver as A.J. is, those are just the facts. Nobody came on stronger than Green to start the season. But as the season went on and Dalton struggled against strong AFC North defenses, so did Green. A wide receiver is only as good as his quarterback. Ask Larry Fitzgerald (cut to Larry nodding somberly). The next four guys have quarterbacks that will put them in a position to excel. I'm not so sure A.J. Green truly has that yet. He may be the league's best juggler. But he won't be the league's best fantasy receiver in 2013.
4. Demaryius Thomas
When the Broncos signed Peyton Manning this year, I put Demaryius Thomas on my "must draft" list. By the time my draft came around, the ESPN talking heads had convinced me not too. All their talk about Eric Decker's route-running and Peyton diluting Thomas' stats cause he'd be sharing the wealth. Thanks a lot guys. I took Desean Jackson over this guy. I could've had 1,400 yards and 10 TDs at my number three wide out position. This year. I refuse to make the same mistake. I will draft Demaryius Thomas early and often. He's as physically gifted as any wide receiver on this list (with the exception of Calvin whose unparalleled). With Decker on the other side and Peyton under center, Demaryius will be scary good for at least a few years.
3. Dez Bryant
The only thing as certain as death and taxes in weeks 10-16 were Dez Bryant touchdown catches. Dallas' "X-factor" finally arrived in 2012, with a receiving display only out-shadowed by number 1 on this list. It appears Tony Romo and Dez Bryant are finally clicking on all cylinders. As a Giants fan, this frightens me. Nursing a broken finger doctors pleaded him not to play with in Week 16, Dez went out and grabbed 9 balls for 244 yards and 2 TDs. Anyone that had Dez on their team in the championship, won that championship (myself included). For the last few years Dez has been a party boy. Last year, Dez became a man amongst boys on the field. If he keeps his act together, he'll give these next two guys a run for their money.
2. Brandon Marshall
Marshall was targeted 194 times last season. Second to only Calvin Johnson. When you give a great receiver that many chances to make a play, you're going to see big results. And that's exactly what fantasy owners saw from him - 118 catches, 1,508 yards and 11 TDs. I tried to draft Marshall on all of my fantasy teams last year. It paid huge dividends. He was the most consistent receiver all year, never totaling less than 8 fantasy points after Week 3. If the Bears can use the off-season to revamp their offensive line a little bit, Marshall might be even better next year.
1. Calvin Johnson
Really not much to talk about here. This
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