Love/Hate for 2013

It's January 1, 2013, New Year's Day. I'm 25 years old and I hate my job.

Okay, it's not that I hate my job, it's just hard to love it right now.

I once heard Steve Jobs say, "If you love your job, you'll never have to work a day in your life". Every Monday through Friday, and often times on Saturday, I feel like I'm working. That's probably a sign I'm not in love with my job.

I envy the people that can say they love their job. The people that say, "I can't believe I get paid to do this". I want to be one of those people.

So what do I love to do then? Well, like any man, I love sports. An industry that's more competitive than any other to be apart of. Every guy wants to be there. And now that former athletes are cashing in on open analyst jobs, it's even more impossible for a tired accountant like myself to break into the business.

But guys like Bill Simmons and Matthew Berry give me hope. The nerdy sports fans that can go toe-to-toe with any former player, and even go beyond them with their unparalleled writing skills.

So using these guys as my motivation, it's time to make my leap of faith. I don't want to look back on my life in five years and say to myself, "Why did you put yourself through that misery?" I want to love my job.

So with all of this talk about love and hate, I thought it fitting to burst on the sports writing scene with my own version of Matthew Berry's Love/Hate fantasy column.

Quarterbacks I Love for 2013:

Robert Griffin III:
I've been a Giants fan my whole life. Football starts and ends with the Giants for me. As such, I vehemently despise the likes of the Cowboys, Eagles and Redskins. It's written in my DNA. But with all that said, I still can't help but like RGIII. He's a class act, the ultimate leader and competitor and an athlete like we've never seen before. He's the mismatch from Hell. And he's going to be in my division (barring any injuries) for the next 10 years. There's a reason I desperately wanted the Giants to win it all this year. This was their chance to be seen as a dynasty. Before it was too late. Before RGIII took over this division and ran away with it. Too late. It's already his. RG3 will be in my nightmares for the next 10 football seasons. He'll be carrying teams to fantasy championships during that time period as well.
Editor's Update: Two weeks after this column, RGIII tore his ACL and LCL. Not exactly loving this guy anymore. At least half this list isn't Washington Redskins. Oh, it is?? Well, now I only "Like" the Washington players. I no longer "Love" them.

Cam Newton:
Remember when we all thought Cam Newton had been cursed by the sophomore slump? That he was no different from any other rookie sensation turned second year fantasy bust of the past? Well, five sensational performances later, he was the #5 ranked player in Yahoo! standard scoring leagues. Go figure. Teams that were one bad week away from elimination, kicking themselves for believing in Cam, found themselves fighting for fantasy championships in Week 16. Cam is figuring  it all out. I myself would jump at the chance to grab Cam next year and reap the fantasy rewards he brings in 2013. He's proving he can do it on the ground AND through the air.

Russell Wilson:
Are you seeing a trend here? These young guys aren't the future of fantasy. They're the present. And Russell Wilson is a gift I'd like to open on draft day next September. My expectations were low for this guy coming into 2012. It didn't look like he could throw a spiral on his college tapes and I wasn't sure he'd even be able to see his shotty class of receivers over that big offensive line. When the season began, the Seahawks used him conservatively, road their strong defense and running game and Russell proved he could manage the game enough for the Seahawks to compete. But it was pretty clear he would never light up the fantasy scoreboard. Then Pete Carroll unleashed him. Wilson finished the year with 40, 30, and 26 point efforts in fantasy. His 40-point effort against Buffalo carried one of my teams into the league championship (spot start of my life). Much like RG3, Wilson is proving to be just as lethal through the air as he is on the ground. The spread option threat is really opening up his passing lanes. If Wilson falls to the fifth round, which I imagine he will, I'm snatching him.

Quarterbacks I Hate:

Andrew Luck:
Andrew Luck is going to be a phenomenal quarterback for years to come in the NFL. The Colts traded away the best player in the history of its franchise, he cruised to a 13-3 record, notching home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and nobody in Indy gives an eff. That's amazing! Literally, amazing! That's how good this kid is. That's how good he'll look to be for the next 15 years. With that said, I'm not high on Andrew Luck for next season. Will he have big weeks? Of course. But he's too inconsistent. And the Colts are due for a let down. They road a significant streak of inspiration with Chuck Pagano that they won't be able to replicate this year. Teams are going to take them more seriously. Reggie Wayne will be a year older. Luck will digress from a fantasy perspective. You heard it here first. Everyone is already saying he's a QB1 next year. I'm saying he's not.

Matt Ryan:
Matty Ice was "Nice!" for my fantasy team this year. I picked him up in Round 5 and road his hot streaks to a second place finish. Matty wanted to be in the elite conversation, and he stepped up. He'll still probably lose in the first round of the playoffs, but when it comes to the regular season, he's been pretty damn good. Even so, Matt Ryan will not be that good this year. Gonzalez is gone, the offense is predictable with no rushing attack and the Falcons are due for a let down. You can't finish first in the NFC two out of three seasons, never make it past the first round and still have the will to come out and do it again. Imagine spending 16 weeks dishing out the finest game you can spit to the girl of your dreams and she still shuts you down at the big dance? Are you gonna be like, "I'll do even better next year!" or are you gonna be like, "Maybe it's just not meant to be"? Ladies and gentlemen, the Atlanta Falcons! As they melt, so will Matty Ice's fantasy luster.

Eli Manning (only in fantasy)
I have an unconditional love for Eli Manning. Always have. Always will. He could force the Giants to trade him to the Eagles, win three Super Bowls and kick me in the nuts, and I'd still probably love him. But damnit, Eli Manning sucks as a fantasy quarterback. Peyton may have tipped him off on the Patriots weaknesses, but when it comes to fantasy advice, Peyton hasn't given Eli shit. He's the most bipolar fantasy quarterback of our generation. 500 yards and 4 TDs one week. 118 yards and 3 INTs the next week. Just stay away from him. You already knew this. But if your new to fantasy this year. Just stay very far away.

Running Backs I Love:

Adrian Peterson:
I took him in the third round last year with the full expectation he would re-tear the ACL on his first lateral cut. I held my breath every carry for the first six weeks. Then Peterson put on the most impressive fantasy run I've ever seen. Much like the Vikings, he took my team, put it on his back, and carried it to a fantasy championship it had no business being in. He's the league MVP. He just came up nine yards shy of the single season rushing record during a recovery year he came back six weeks too early for. This is your number 1 overall pick. No questions asked. Just nod and click draft. You're welcome.

Alfred Morris:
As long as this guy is running beside Robert Griffin III, he's going to be fantasy gold. 1600 yards as a rookie. He literally doesn't get the ball until its been predetermined the defensive end is pursuing the quarterback by mistake. It's just not fair. The Redskins offense is playing chess while the opposing defenses are playing checkers.

C.J. Spiller:
I'm going to assume Fred Jackson is going to take on a reduced role this year. And if that's not [Insert Chan Gailey's replacement here]'s plan, I'm going to have to assume Fred Jackson will get hurt and miss significant time anyway. The man is as durable as a paper umbrella in the middle of a nor'easter. C.J. Spiller is going to be a fantasy stud for years to come in this league. He averaged 6.8 yards per touch this year, which translates to over 1,700 yards in only 250 touches. By comparison, Arian Foster had 1,641 yards in 391 touches. The Bills would be crazy not to feed Spiller the ball more. Now let's not underestimate the Bills, but I think Spiller's in for a huge year.

Wide Receivers I Love:

Okay, let's get the obvious out of the way:

Calvin Johnson: 
He started slow. He was cursed by Madden. He got tackled at the one yard line six times. His quarterback had an awful year. And he still shattered the single-season receiving record, came just shy of 2,000 yards and led all fantasy WRs in points.

Brandon Marshall:
I'm pretty sure Brandon Marshall averaged 37 targets per game last year. His supporting cast is so pitiful, Cutler literally feels the need to throw to him on every play. Defenses know this, and Cutler throws it anyway. You can't argue with targets like that. 118 receptions, 1508 yards, 11 TDs. He was the most consistent receiver in fantasy from Week 1 to Week 16.

Dez Bryant:
Dez was the "X-Factor" in my big play league last year. It's a league that doesn't award negative points for mistakes, the scoring is based on offensive plateau's (i.e. 60-75 yds receiving is 3 points, 76-90 is 6 points, etc.) and awards bonus points for big play TDs (i.e. 10 yard TD - 6 points + 3, 25 yard TD - 6 points +6). In short: it's awesome. Safe to say his 224 yards and 2, 58 yard TD receptions in Week 16 helped pave the way to a league title for me and my co-manager. As such, Dez holds a special place in my fantasy heart. I don't know if it was the curfew, added experience or what, but Dez figured it out in Week 9. Nothing would indicate he's going to slow down going further either.

Now onto the less obvious...

Michael Crabtree:
My favorite college WR of all-time (sorry Peter Warrick) is finally starting to get it together. Either that or he's finally got a quarterback who isn't afraid to hurl the pigskin more than 6 yards down the field. Regardless, Michael Crabtree is starting to make noise.

Let's compare the last five games of the 2012 season for two players blind:

Player A - 56 targets, 35 receptions, 538 yards, 15.6 ypc, 4 TDs
Player B - 56 targets, 42 receptions, 546 yards, 13.4 ypc, 1 TD

Player A is Michael Crabtree. Player B is Andre Johnson. Johnson had two 140+ yard efforts over that stretch as well. The fact of the matter is, Michael Crabtree is really good with Colin Kaepernick under center. We are starting to see shades of the player Michael Crabtree was in college. I'm taking my chances with this guy next year. I might even pick him a round too early to make sure I get him. That's how much I like this guy's potential.

T.Y. Hilton:
Here's an even more surprising blind player comparison over the last seven games of the 2012 season:

Player A - 82 targets, 37 receptions, 424 yards, 11.1 ypc, 2 TDs
Player B - 46 targets, 26 receptions, 506 yards, 20.0 ypc, 5 TDs

Player B is T.Y. Hilton. Player A...is Reggie Wayne. The ratio of receptions to targets for Wayne is alarming. Granted Luck was a little erratic, but he's throwing to both of these guys. Those statistics are over a seven game stretch too. If you're trying to grab a Colt at wide out, your best option is clearly Hilton. It took the rookie a little while to get going, but he really heated up in the second half. Next year, he's going to put up some big fantasy numbers.

Pierre Garcon:
Are you starting to see a real Redskin's trend here? As a Giants fan this is killing me, but I have to give credit where credit is due. The Skin's offense is built for fantasy right now. Garcon missed significant time this year, played hurt and even lost his quarterback a few times. Prorate his stats over a 16 game season and he's a 1,000 yard receiver with 6 or 7 TDs. Not bad, considering this would be in a season where both he and his quarterback were playing hurt. When healthy, the biggest beneficiary on the Redskins' receiving core is going to be Pierre Garcon. He's a WR3 worth taking a chance on.

Wide Receivers I Hate:
Cecil Shorts: 
(See: Tebow, Tim)
Editor's Update: Jacksonville's new GM refuses to acquire Tebow. Cecil is looking better already. For those of you in any Canadian Football Fantasy League's. Be sure to steer clear of Tebow's receiving core.

Brandon Lloyd:
Long gone are the days when Tom Brady airs it out up the field. The system is simple: Work the tight ends up the middle. The short out routes to Welker. Pound the run game when the defense is giving it to you. (Nowhere on that list does it say: Throw it deep to Brandon Lloyd).

Mike Wallace:
Still not sure where Mike Wallace will end up next year, but a lot of signs are pointing to Miami. Tannehill might turn out to be pretty good, but things just don't seem to work out for wide receivers down there. Four games against Aqib Talib and Darrelle Revis too? A quarter of his season is already looking gloom.

Reggie Wayne:
Father time will catch him eventually. You already saw the player comparison above with Hilton. As Luck begins to trust his second and third options, Wayne's production will continue to drop.

Anyone on the Philadelphia Eagles:
This doesn't even have anything to do with fantasy. I just really don't like the Eagles.

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