49ers (-2.5) at Packers

Key Themes at Play Here:

Packers have the home dog, "Nobody Believes In Us!" underlying theme at play.

Niners have the road favorite, "Everybody Believes In Us!" underlying theme at play.

The Facts:

The Niners are coached by Jim Harbaugh.

The Packers are coached by Mike McCarthy.

Aaron Rodgers has the best total QBR all-time when the temperature drops below freezing (75).

Colin Kaepernick has shredded Dom Capers defense in two career starts against him:

• 17/31 263 yards 2 TDs 1 INT, 16 carries 181 yards 2 TDs, Total QBR: 92
• 27/39 412 yards 3 TDs 0 INT, 7 carries 22 yards 0 TDs, Total QBR: 90

The Niners have never won a game at Lambeau Field.

The game time temperature is expected to be 1 degree, with -23 degree win chills.

Colin Kaepernick has never played an NFL game in freezing temperatures.

Colin Kaepernick throws harder than anyone in the NFL. At -23 degrees, he'll be hurling rocket-propelled rocks at his receivers.

Aaron Rodgers is coming off of a collarbone injury that kept him out eight weeks.

Anquan Boldin was another breed in the playoffs last year.

Michael Crabtree is starting to heat up.

Aaron Rodgers has a healthy Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Randall Cobb at his disposal.

Aaron Rodgers can't seem to get revenge on the childhood team that passed on him at #1 overall.

All Factors Considered:

The arctic temperatures have me concerned about taking the road team. Nevertheless, defenses win championships. Great coaching and quarterback play do as well. The Niners hit all three of those criteria, while the Packers only really hit one (quarterback play). As good as Aaron Rodgers is, he looked pretty uncomfortable in the pocket against a much-maligned Chicago Bears defense last week. It was pretty obvious he was hesitant to scramble. That collarbone could take a beating on the rock-hard, frozen tundra against this vaunted Niners defense.

Prediction: Niners 30 - Packers 24